Yankees vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions: Toronto Strikes First in Clash of AL Behemoths

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By Josh Inglis

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The New York Yankees have won 14 of their last 15 games and sit 31 games above .500, but the Toronto Blue Jays are waiting for the travelling Bombers and are sporting the league’s best offence over the last month.

New York has taken six of the nine meetings this season and now faces former middle-reliever Ross Stripling, who has been unhittable since jumping into the rotation and the books are pricing this game as a pick’em.

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Can the Jays slow down this historically good New York team? Find out more in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Blue Jays.

Yankees vs Blue Jays odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Toronto opened as slight +100 dogs but have since moved 10 points to -110. Stripling and the Jays closed as -105 underdogs versus Montgomery and the Yankees back in early May — a game New York won 3-2.

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The total has also seen plenty of movement after opening at 9.5 and moving to 9.0.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs Blue Jays predictions

Picks made on 6/17/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Yankees vs Blue Jays game info

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date: Friday, June 17, 2022
First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
TV: YES, Sportsnet

Yankees vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 2.70 ERA): Jordan Montgomery will get the start today at Rogers Centre. He went five innings in Toronto earlier this month, allowing just two runs in a no-decision. Montgomery is not a high strikeout pitcher (51 Ks in 66-plus innings) and the Yankees are 6-6 straight up in his 12 starts this season.

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Ross Stripling (3-1, 3.14 ERA): Stripling has jumped into the rotation with ease and has allowed just two hits and zero runs over his recent two starts (11 innings). He hasn’t allowed a run in 13 2-3 innings and his command has been on point with just eight walks over his 43 innings on the season. This New York lineup will be a big litmus test.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Yankees: Aroldis Chapman RP (Out), Chad Greene RP (Out), Jonathan Loaisga RP (Out).

Blue Jays: Bo Bichette SS (Questionable), Matt Chapman 3B (Questionable).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays’ last four games vs. American League East teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays

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Yankees vs Blue Jays picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favourite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Yankees are coming off a sweep of the Rays but the offence wasn’t at its best, as it managed just eight runs in the three-game set. Now, the Yankees have to fly into Canada which hasn’t been a fluid situation for any traveller, and face the league’s best offence over the last 30 days.

The Jays are slashing .28/.359/.495 over the last 30 days and have the No. 1 wOBA and wRC+. Alejandro Kirk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and George Springer all have an OPS north of .850 since May 15 and Santiago Espinal is 18-for-50 over the last two weeks. There’s a case that this is the best lineup in baseball and a travelling Jordan Montgomery will have to navigate this gauntlet.

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Montgomery saw the Jays a month ago and escaped with a decent no-decision. The Jays were a different team a month ago as the bats were still cold. Now the often hard-hit lefty will try and find some routine in a non-conventional travel day that included a border crossing.

If the roof is open, the ball could be flying at Rogers Centre. Monty likes to set up pitches with his changeup (27.4%) but batters are slugging .470 off the offering.

Montgomery might have the benefit of not seeing Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman (both questionable), but this is a deep Toronto lineup that can fill in positional gaps easily.

The Yankees might have offensive envy as the once No. 1 bats struggled to get on base in their last series with the Rays. Facing a starter like Ross Stripling who has allowed just two hits over his last two scoreless starts might not help. Stripling’s scoreless streak will likely end tonight, but the veteran looks like a good bet to give the Jays another quality outing.

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The Jays are coming off a disappointing 10-2 loss at home to the Orioles yesterday afternoon, but they have not dropped back-to-back games at home since May 3 and are 20-12 SU at home on the season.

Many might reach for the Yankees here with the Jays possibly missing the left side of their infield, but we’re siding with the market movement which has been moving in favour of the Jays after opening at +100 for the home side.

Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-102 at Coolbet)

Covers MLB betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

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In the last game that Stripling started versus Montgomery back in early May, five total runs were scored, but combined — both teams finished 3-for-16 with runners in scoring position. This total opened at 9.5 and has hit 9.0 across the board, but the biggest factor will be the roof.

With the temperatures in the mid-70s and no rain in the forecast, we’d expect the roof to be open tonight for this big divisional game on a Friday night. An open dome would increase the hitting conditions for tonight and considering these are two of the best power lineups in baseball and we’re seeing backend starters, we have to lean to the Over, especially since it moved off 9.5.

The Jays hit the Over in each of their last four home games versus the Orioles and if bettors are worried about betting it tonight because of the Yankees’ bullpen, the Baltimore bullpen is been just as good as New York’s as they sit No. 2 and No. 3 in WAR on the season.

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When you look at ERA, Stripling and Montgomery might not be the best pitchers to fade but there is plenty to like about the Over today.

Stripling has allowed just two hits over his last two starts but did so against the Tigers and Royals who are two of the worst offences in the league. New York got two runs on six hits against Stripling in the last meeting in May, while the veteran is a career 5.84 ERA pitcher whose scoreless streak is likely to end tonight.

Montgomery has a 2.70 ERA with a sub-1.00 WHIP, but he can get hit hard and faces a lineup that has been striking out at one of the lowest rates in baseball over the last 30 days. Even without Bichette, there are plenty of batters who can do damage today versus the lefty. The Jays feature a heavy right-handed-hitting lineup and have the third-best OPS vs. LHP in baseball.

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If Gold Glover Matt Chapman were to sit out, that would make the Jays much weaker defensively on the left side. Guerrero and Espinal would likely man the left side which is a downgrade on Chapman and Bichette.

With two stacked lineups and a pair of back-end starters taking the hump, we’re getting on the Over tonight and will be thrilled if the roof is open.

Prediction: Over 9 (-118 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Montgomery faces an offence that is seeing the ball well with a .289/.359/.495 slash line over the last 30 days and a 17.8% strikeout rate which is a top-three rank in baseball. The southpaw had a good outing versus the Jays back in early May but Toronto was struggling offensively then. They certainly aren’t now, though.

Bo Bichette, Santiago Espinal, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are a combined 11-for-21 vs. Montgomery with three home runs. Alejandro Kirk (1.115 OPS), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.911 OPS), and George Springer (.861 OPS) are also tearing the cover off the ball over the last 30 days. This is not an easy lineup to navigate and with an afternoon game yesterday, the Jays are a little more rested coming into tonight’s opener.

Montgomery’s strikeout prop is sitting on the long side at 4.5 and paying -115 to the Under. Monty hasn’t collected more than five strikeouts in any of his 12 starts this season, so he certainly isn’t going to crush this total. With the Jays not striking out and possibly knocking him around a bit today, the Under here is a more probable outcome.

Pick: Montgomery Under 4.5 strikeouts (-115 at FanDuel)

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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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