UFC 275 Teixeira vs Prochazka Picks and Predictions: The Czech Samurai’s Sword Sharpens

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Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Procházka is the headline event for UFC 275 betting on June 11 at Singapore Indoor Stadium.

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This will be the first UFC pay-per-view event to be held in Southeast Asia and it should be a memorable one with Teixeira making his first defense of the light heavyweight title. The 42-year-old Teixeira continues to be overlooked by oddsmakers with UFC betting lines having the current champ as a +160 underdog while the challenger Procházka is a -200 UFC odds favorite.

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Here are our best free UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Procházka picks and predictions for Saturday, June 11.

Teixeira vs Prochazka method of victory odds

Method of Victory Glover Teixeira Jiri Prochazka
To win by KO/TKO +600 -115
To win by Points +600 +600
To win by Submission +430 +2,600
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 7, 2022.

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Teixeira vs Prochazka picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Teixeira vs Prochazka betting preview

Glover Teixeira has won six fights in a row, most recently finishing Jan Blachowicz in the second round to claim the 205-pound belt last October.

During that six-fight winning streak, Teixeira has earned three Performance of the Night bonuses and racked up five victories inside the distance, including a pair of recent stoppage wins against former title challengers Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith.

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The 42-year-old earned his first championship shot against Jon Jones in 2014 but lost by way of unanimous decision. Teixeira has a background in BJJ and is a terror on the mat, with 10 career wins by submission and many of his 18 knockout victories coming due to his brutal ground and pound.

Covers UFC 275 Betting Analysis

Jiri Procházka has burst onto the UFC scene with back-to-back knockout wins. He starched Volkan Oezdemir in his promotional debut in 2020 then followed up on that with a second-round KO victory against Dominick Reyes last year. He has a career MMA record of 28-3-1 and has won 12 fights in a row.

Procházka is the former Rizin light heavyweight champion and 18 of his previous 19 wins have come by way of KO/TKO, including notable victories over “King Mo” Muhammed Lawal and current Bellator champ Vadim Nemkov. The 29-year-old is a very creative striker that has a high output and vicious power.

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Teixeira vs Prochazka tale of the tape

Glover Teixeira Jiri Prochazka
42 Age 29
6-foot-2 Height 6-foot-3
205 lbs Weight 205 lbs
76 inches Reach 80 inches
33-7 (17 KOs) Record 28-3 (25 KOs)

Teixeira vs Prochazka UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

This is the fourth consecutive fight that Teixeira enters as an underdog, but I believe that his upset streak ends here. Teixeira has terrific grappling and top control but he’s 42 years old, and even in his prime wasn’t known for his speed and lateral movement.

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Aging light heavyweights like Blachowicz and Santos (coming off double-knee surgery) didn’t have the quickness to take advantage of that, but the prime Procházka will be able to. The 29-year-old is such a dynamic and explosive striker, and he’s able to throw punches, kicks, and elbows from every angle, which will be tough for the slow-footed Teixeira to defend.

Teixeira has been in the UFC for a decade and although Procházka has just two fights in the octagon, he has 32 fights under his belt across various promotions, so the edge in experience isn’t as large as it might appear.

If Teixeira can wear down Procházka with his grappling, he’ll be able to grind out the victory, but I think the Czech Samurai will unload on him in the early rounds and finish him before it gets to that stage.

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Prediction: Procházka moneyline (-200 at bet365)

Best bet: Prochazka by KO/TKO (-115)

Teixeira has solid boxing ability and does a good job of setting coms up with calf kicks, but his striking toolbox isn’t as diverse as Prochazka’s and he has a history of getting clipped in inside exchanges. Even in his second-round submission win against Santos, he ate some big shots in the opening round.

That would be disastrous against an aggressive striker like Prochazka, who has a tendency to furiously swarm his foes when he smells blood in the water.

This fight is installed at anywhere from -450 to -600 to end inside the distance, and with us backing Prochazka to get the win, it makes sense to consider him by way of stoppage. With his last 10 wins coming by KO/TKO, we’ll back him on that method to win prop at close to a pick’em price.

Pick: Procházka by KO/TKO (-115 at FanDuel)

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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