Thanks to a double-header, it’s a fully loaded day of action on the diamond with 16 games on the MLB schedule. This means there is plenty of baseball betting value to be found in the player prop market.
Tonight, we highlight Braves starter, Kyle Wright, who could be all kinds of wrong for a struggling A’s lineup. Then we target another member of the Blue Jays’ surging offence. And it could be a long night for German Marquez when he toes the rubber vs. the Giants.
Check out our MLB player prop picks for Tuesday, June 7, as we bank on some of baseball’s best to do their thing.
MLB props for June 7
Picks made on 6/7/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
Kyle is the Wright choice
The Atlanta Braves have won five in a row, and they’ll have a great chance to make it six when they hand the ball to Kyle Wright when they open a mini two-game set with the Oakland Athletics.
Wright is dealing. The right-hander has allowed just four earned runs on 11 hits, while striking out 25 batters in 24 innings over his last four starts. That equates to a 1.50 ERA while limiting opponents to a .136 batting average. Now he’ll get the chance to keep mowing down batters in this matchup against the A’s.
Oakland has really struggled to get much production out of its lineup when going against right-handers this season. The A’s .204 batting average, .580 OPS, and 24 home runs are dead last in MLB. Now they face a right-hander that is holding opposing teams to a .234 expected batting average.
With Wright limiting teams to three hits or fewer in four straight games, and four hits or fewer in seven of his 10 starts this season, getting the Under 4.5 hits allowed against a team that whiffs more than anyone when facing righties, and at plus money, looks like as solid a bet as any today.
Pick: Kyle Wright Under 4.5 hits allowed (+106)
Covers MLB betting analysis
Homer for Hernandez
Yesterday, we backed Toronto Blue Jays’ catcher Alejandro Kirk to stay hot and go Over 1.5 total bases in their series opener against the Kansas City Royals, but we came up just short. Today, we go back to the well with this surging Blue Jays’ offence, this time with All-Star and two-time silver slugger, Teoscar Hernandez.
It was a really tough start to the season for Hernandez. The Jays’ outfielder strained his oblique early in April, costing him nearly a month of action. And when Hernandez finally did return to the lineup, you could tell his timing at the plate was way off.
Hernandez saw his batting average dip all the way to .149 and his OPS to .465. But remember, this is a guy who has hit for a .295 average with a .882 OPS over the last two seasons, and it appears Hernandez has got his timing back.
He now has hits in 10 of his last 11 games, hitting .357 with a .997 OPS over that span. The only thing missing? The home runs.
Hernandez has whacked 48 dingers over the last season and a half and only has three this season, but tonight’s matchup with Royals starter Brad Keller could change that.
Keller is having what you could characterize as an OK season — pitching to an expected ERA of 3.91 — but is giving up a .273 expected batting average to opponents. He has also surrendered five home runs over his last five starts.
On top of that, no Blue Jay has had more success against Keller than Hernandez. Teo is 4-for-10 in his career with a triple and a homer while only striking out once. Hernandez is heating up, and it’s only a matter of time before the dingers start coming.
Pick: Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+490)
Marquez starting is a Giant mistake
Run prevention has been a problem for the Colorado Rockies this season. A big one. And that could continue tonight when starter German Marquez takes the mound to face off against the San Francisco Giants.
The Rockies have already surrendered 316 runs this season, the most in MLB. For added context, they are one of only two teams to give up more than 300 at this point, and only five have surrendered 260 or more. Let’s just say Marquez hasn’t been helping the situation.
The right-hander hasn’t been able to find the form that made him an All-Star last season. His strikeouts are down, and while he’s been a little unlucky with an expected ERA of 4.69, his opponent expected batting average is .285. On top of that, not many teams gave Marquez more trouble than the Giants did last season.
Marquez made four starts against the Giants in 2021, pitching to an ugly 13.81 ERA, a 2.30 WHIP, and allowing them to hit .365.
San Francisco’s lineup may not be as potent as last season but it is still solid. The Giants rank seventh in OPS and 11th in batting average when facing right-handed pitchers this season.
With Marquez getting roughed up for at least six hits in eight of his last nine starts, the Giants should make it nine of 10 when you consider the Rockies tend to leave him in the game even if things aren’t going his way.
Pick: German Marquez Over 5.5 hits allowed (-118)
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