Though sides and totals are still the standard when it comes to NFL betting, player props have exploded in popularity for the casual and seasoned bettor. New player prop markets are being offered every season, and finding an edge in one of these offerings can be quite profitable.
Here are three for NFL Week 6:
Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)
We’ve been doing well this season with quarterback rushing yard props. Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen have been mainstays for this series. Sportsbooks have caught on to them trucking defenses this season with their legs, however, and now both of their betting lines have increased significantly. That’s why we’re pivoting to Patrick Mahomes and banking on him to rush for 24 or more yards against the Bills in the marquee game of Week 6.
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Mahomes isn’t considered a traditional dual-threat, compared to the likes of Hurts, Allen or Lamar Jackson, but he definitely has the capability to chew up yards on the ground. The Chiefs quarterback has topped this number in three straight games and has averaged more than 6 yards per carry in those contests.
In two games versus Buffalo last season (including the postseason), Mahomes rushed 15 times for 130 yards (8.6 yards per carry). The Bills haven’t really been tested by an elite running QB this season, except for Jackson, who rushed for 73 yards on 11 carries.
Though I don’t expect Mahomes to top Jackson’s number, getting to 24 yards seems realistic.
Jeff Wilson Jr. Over 1.5 receptions (+110, FanDuel)
In Kyle Shanahan’s offense, the running back is crucial to moving the ball. That’s why San Francisco has so many different options to rush in Wilson, Deebo Samuel, Kyle Juszczyk and even Tevin Coleman. But Wilson still seems to be the lead back, so I think it’s worth a swing for him to get two or more receptions against Atlanta.
Ever since Eli Mitchell went down with an injury in Week 1, the 49ers’ backfield has been Wilson’s show. Yes, Samuel still cuts into those carries, but Wilson has had the lion’s share of touches, with 74 carries to Samuel’s 21. Wilson has also played the most snaps at running back for the season and has two or more catches in three of five games this season.
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The Falcons haven’t done much to stop screen passes to running backs in 2022. They rank 25th in passes allowed to opposing running backs (29 in five games), and the RB1 has two or more catches against them in four of five games. Against Tampa Bay, Atlanta allowed 10 catches to Leonard Fournette and three to Rachaad White. I get the emergence of Coleman in this offense, but at these odds, they both can eat and we still will hit the bet.
Kirk Cousins to throw interception (+125, FanDuel)
Six QBs have plus odds to have an interception in Week 6, including Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen.
Though those three have been hit-or-miss this season with turnovers, there’s a sneaky quarterback to bet for these whom I can’t overlook in this spot — Kirk Cousins.
Full disclosure: Cousins isn’t usually a QB I bet for this prop, as his interception rate swings too much from season to season. In 68 career games with the Vikings, Cousins has just 41 INTs, which is pretty decent for today’s passing standards. This year, however, he’s on pace to smash his passing attempts total in a season with 198 attempts in five games, which would be close to 700 for the year.
His career high was 606 attempts in Washington (2016), when he had 12 interceptions in 16 games. I mention that because the Vikings have started to become a pass-first offense with the emergence of WR Justin Jefferson. Now, Cousins has five interceptions, with at least one pick in three of his past four games.