NFL Week 10 picks, offers, odds

Our NFL betting writer brings you his best Chargers at 49ers predictions and picks for their NFL Week 10 showdown, which is live Sunday on NBC at 5:20 p.m. EST.

The Chargers (5-3) have a top QB in Justin Herbert but have struggled with their rushing attack while also having issues stopping opponents’ ground game. Getting the ball into versatile RB Austin Ekeler’s hands has been a successful strategy but San Francisco will be geared up to slow him down. The 49ers (4-4) are set to unveil the anticipated offensive duo of Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey.

Chargers vs. 49ers picks

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Chargers vs. 49ers picks and analysis

Plenty of attention has been devoted to the Samuel-McCaffrey combination and how potent they can make an offense with their hybrid styles. Perhaps just as big of an impact could be San Francisco’s dynamic defense and what they are capable of against the Chargers.

49ers cover -7

The Chargers’ defense has struggled against the run to the tune of 145.5 yards against per game, which is fourth from the bottom heading into Week 10. It is an ominous sign in advance of a game where their opponent will unleash a two-headed offensive onslaught.

McCaffrey’s quick-cutting running style with precise vision will give a contrasting look when compared to Samuel’s power-running style either with a hand off or after a catch. A constant rushing barrage by the 49ers figures to have the Chargers reeling by the second half.

Most beneficial of all to the 49ers is that they lessen the reliance on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, allowing him to focus on being a mistake-free field leader, which is a style that has served him well this season. He has four interceptions in 210 attempts.

Chargers vs. 49ers prediction: 49ers to cover -7 at -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Under 45.5 total points scored

Sure Samuel and McCaffrey have big-play potential. Samuel has shown that often, like his 57-yard TD reception from Garoppolo in Week 4 against the Rams. McCaffrey had a passing, rushing and receiving TD in Week 8 against the Rams.

But it is Samuel’s 5.8 yards per rush and McCaffrey’s 5.1 per attempt that stand out. It means that on average, one rush from Samuel and one from McCaffrey equals a first down. It also shows a path for marching downfield and controlling time of possession.

And when the 49ers want to mix up the look, both players are able to stand out as pass catchers. The Chargers, meanwhile, struggled to score points against a below-average Falcons defense last week and now have to face one of the best defenses in the game.

Chargers vs. 49ers prediction: Under 45.5 total points scored at -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)

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49ers score touchdown on first drive

In each of their last six games, the 49ers have scored a touchdown in either their first or second drive of the game. And that includes Week 3 at Denver, when they found the end zone the second time they touched the ball then scored just three points the rest of the way.

The early scores show that San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan can match his personnel with and a game plan that takes advantage of the tendencies of opposing defenses. He even did it early with a defense as strong as what the Broncos put on the field.

The Chargers’ defense is not in that class so expected Shanahan to be prepared with a scripted first-drive package that highlights Samuel and McCaffrey, while also finding the ideal spots for Garoppolo to deliver when L.A. might least expect it.

Chargers vs. 49ers prediction: 49ers score touchdown on first drive at +245 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Chargers vs. 49ers odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.