Mets vs. Brewers odds, prediction, pick, probable pitchers


All of a sudden, the New York Mets have some company atop the National League East. On June 1, the Mets held a 10.5-game lead in the division and seemed like a safe bet to coast to October. A 6-6 stretch in June, coupled with a 14-game winning streak by the Atlanta Braves, has slashed the Metropolitans’ lead to just four games.

The Mets will look to get themselves back on track on Thursday night as -135 favorites against the Milwaukee Brewers.

This may not be a great spot for the Metsies, though.

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Mets vs. Brewers preview and prediction

After a great start to the season, Tylor Megill will need to find his form for the Mets to provide some depth to their injury-riddled rotation. Through his first six starts, Megill posted a 2.43 ERA and 2.92 xFIP in 33.1 innings of work. That stretch ended on May 4, then Megill got shelled a week later and ended up on the injured list. His first outing back went about as expected, as Megill allowed two earned runs on five hits and gave up a dinger in 3.1 innings.

Megill’s work in the early part of the season and what we saw from him in 2021 should mean we’ll see him improve as he gets back in rhythm, but it could take some time. 

Opposite Megill will be Aaron Ashby, a young southpaw coming off a career-worst performance against the Nationals. Even so, Ashby’s peripheral numbers still remain strong. Last week’s rough showing vaulted the 24-year-old’s ERA to 3.91, but his peripheral numbers remain strong. Ashby has pitched to a 2.85 xERA and 2.92 xFIP and his hard-hit rate is currently at 30%, which puts him in the 89th percentile league-wide.

Brewers starting pitcher Aaron Ashby delivers during the second inning of a game against the Nationals, Friday, June 10, 2022, in Washington.
Aaron Ashby heads into the matchup with the Mets at 1-5 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.441 WHIP and 62 strikeouts in 50 2/3 innings in 13 games, including seven starts.

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Ashby’s control can get away from him, but when he’s on his stuff is elite. He’s striking out 27% of batters and he ranks in the 91st percentile in barrel rate. Ashby has the potential to dominate any lineup and with the Mets grading out as pedestrian against lefties, this could be a good bounce-back spot for the young hurler.

Underdogs are off to a historically bad start in 2022, but that doesn’t mean that you should avoid pooches at all costs right now. Instead, you’ll need to pick your spots and this looks like a good one with a solid Brewers lineup and bullpen backing up a promising young left-hander.

Mets vs. Brewers pick

Milwaukee Brewers +116 (FanDuel)

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