Expert NFL odds and picks

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Our NFL expert offers best betting predictions and picks for the Week 4 game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

As Hurricane Ian overwhelmed parts of western Florida, the Buccaneers hit the road for a week of practice in Miami. They’re back home for Sunday’s rematch of Super Bowl LV played in the same stadium. Tom Brady and the Bucs dismantled the Chiefs, 31-9, in that game, but roster changes since and injuries might be a major factor Sunday.

Buccaneers vs Chiefs predictions


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Buccaneers vs. Chiefs picks and analysis

Home after being away for the week, the Buccaneers are fighting through injury issues to the offensive line and wide receiver group following a 14-12 loss to the Packers last week. The Chiefs lost at Indianapolis and never appeared to be in rhythm, a similar feel for the offense to the Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneers.

Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes
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Chiefs -0.5 first quarter

Of the 27 total points allowed by Tampa’s top-ranked defense, the Buccaneers yielded 13 points in the first quarter and 20 total in the first half through three games. Kansas City is averaging 14.6 points in the first half and has scored 20 points in the first quarter this season.

Scripts are head coach Andy Reid’s thing, and the Buccaneers won’t have the luxury of facing Kansas City’s second-string offensive line as they did in Super Bowl LV.

The slow-starting Buccaneers allowed a TD in the first quarter to the Packers and every team has scored against Tampa in the first quarter so far this season.

Our Pick: Chiefs -0.5 in the first quarter

Jerrick McKinnon anytime touchdown scorer +430

Jerick McKinnon has 20 total touches — 15 carries, five receptions — this season but is leading the team in running back snap count and routes run by a wide margin. His edge over Clyde Edwards-Helaire is blocking and catching as a third-down option. As the Buccaneers add defensive backs to slow down Patrick Mahomes, the chances of getting McKinnon on the field only multiply.

McKinnon matched CEH with a team-high seven carries last week.

Kansas City has avoided plowing straight ahead in short yardage with 45 first downs via the pass — and 15 rushing.

McKinnon has lined up in the slot, alongside Mahomes in the Pistol formation and as the deep back. How the Buccaneers adjust to his versatility is only part of the equation. Tampa has to prioritize checking tight end Travis Kelce.

Our Pick: McKinnon anytime TD scorer @ +430

Tom Brady
Tom Brady
Getty Images

Betting on the NFL?

Tom Brady under 26.5 completions

Brady is tied for 17th in the NFL with 103 pass attempts and 25th in average gain per pass (6.53), numbers that are due for a correction if left tackle Donovan Smith and his star-studded receiving corps returns Sunday night.

Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans rejoining the lineup changes the equation for Tampa, and the Chiefs are ill-equipped to hold up to a downfield barrage if Brady has time to throw. But standing to survey from the pocket has been a rarity for Brady behind this offensive line, with holes up the middle and to his left, where Smith hasn’t played since Week 1.

Our Pick: Brady under 26.5 completions

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs odds

Team Spread Money Line Total Points: 46
Chiefs Pick ’em -110 Over -110
Buccaneers Pick ’em -110 Under -110

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