Blue Jays vs Royals Picks and Predictions: Blue Birds Cruise in KC

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The Toronto Blue Jays continue their string of series against American League Central opponents when they visit the Kansas City Royals for the opener of a three-game set at Kauffman Stadium.

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While the Jays dropped their latest series to the Minnesota Twins, their bats continued to make noise, plating 21 runs over the weekend. Can Toronto keep scoring in bunches against a Kansas City team that has surrendered the most runs in the AL?

Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Royals on Monday, June 6.

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Blue Jays vs Royals odds

The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as -165 road favorites and have seen the early money, moving the line to -185. The total hit the board at 9.5 and has been bet up to an even 10 as of Monday afternoon.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Blue Jays vs Royals predictions

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Picks made on 6/6/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Blue Jays vs Royals game info

Location: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Date: Monday, June 6, 2022
First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports Kansas City

Blue Jays vs Royals betting preview

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Starting pitchers

Ross Stripling (1-1, 4.22 ERA): It’s been a luxury for the Jays to have Stripling bounce back and forth between the bullpen and rotation. This will be Stripling’s sixth start of the season but his first since May 7. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts.

Daniel Lynch (2-4, 4.81 ERA): Lynch had been pitching fairly well until recently, but the lefty has hit a mini three-game slump where he is pitching to an 8.31 ERA and is surrendering a .356 batting average to opponents.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Blue Jays: Tim Mayza RP (Out).
Royals: Andrew Benintendi OF (Questionable), Gabe Speier RP (Questionable), Amir Garret RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

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Betting trend to know

The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five road games and the Royals are 1-6 in their last seven at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Royals

Blue Jays vs Royals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favourite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

The Blue Jays’ winning streak came to an end over the weekend, as they dropped two of three to the Twins, but while Toronto was unable to win the series, the bats continued to stay hot.

The Blue Jays plated 21 runs against the Twins and over the last 15 days (12 games) they rank first in OPS (.908) and fourth in batting average (.285). They have also increased their batting average with runners in scoring position up 43 points since hitting a low-water mark of .178 prior to a series against the Angels in late May.

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So, will Daniel Lynch and the Royals, a team that has given up more runs than any other team in the American League, be able to slow down a red-hot-hitting Toronto club?

Well, as noted, things aren’t going well for Lynch at the moment. His current slump has dropped his expected ERA to 4.47 and is giving up an expected batting average of .277 to opponents. Lynch also doesn’t have a high strikeout rate, punching out 39 batters in 43 innings pitched this season.

Lynch has also pitched 5 1-3 innings or less in seven of his nine starts this season. This means plenty of work for a struggling KC bullpen, which ranks 28th in ERA and opponent batting average and dead last in WHIP.

Additionally, Stripling has been better than his ERA, pitching to an expected ERA of 3.35, and is facing a Royals offence that is struggling.

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Back the Jays to get the job on the road tonight by a couple of runs.

Prediction: Blue Jays -1.5 (-113 at FanDuel)

Covers MLB betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

When it comes to the total, the early money has jumped on the Over but even with the Jays’ offensive outburst of the last couple of weeks, expecting 11 runs plated in this game is asking quite a lot from the Royals’ offence at this point in the season.

Kansas City has struggled to produce all season long. The Royals plate 3.86 runs per game, good for 26th in MLB. That drops to 3.14 over their last seven games. On top of that, the Royals rank 25th in OPS and 28th in home runs.

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Stripling also made one start against this Royals team last season, pitching 5 1-3 innings while allowing just two runs on four hits.

The Jays should do some scoring in this one, but it might not be enough to send this one Over this high total.

Prediction: Under 10 (-115 at DraftKings)

Best bet

A lot of Jays are clicking at the dish right now., but none more so than Alejandro Kirk.

The Jays’ catcher is hitting .444 with a 1.401 OPS with eight extra-base hits over his last 10 games and in the nine games he’s started in that span, he’s gone Over 1.5 total bases seven times.

Kirk is striking out in just 8.6% of his plate appearances which ranks in the Top 2% of all hitters. As a result, he is making a lot of contact.

That doesn’t bode well for Lynch, who pitches to a lot of contact. Kirk is also hitting .344 when facing lefties this season. Mix in some decent plus money and this is a great best bet.

Pick: Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 total bases (+110)

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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