Alouettes vs Argonauts Week 2 Picks and Predictions: Als May Not Cover, But Team Total is Ripe

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Week 2 of the 2022 CFL season begins on Thursday night with the Toronto Argonauts hosting the Montreal Alouettes at BMO Field. This is the season-opener for the Argos, who will take on an Als side looking to bounce back from a close loss on the road last week.

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CFL betting lines hit the board on Monday, with the Argos installed as 2.5-point home faves, and that line has since grown as high as -3.5. Here are our best free Alouettes vs. Argonauts picks and predictions for June 16, with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Alouettes vs Argonauts odds

This line hit the board at Argos -2.5 with the Over/Under at 46.5. Early money has come in on the home side and the Over, shifting the line from -3 to -3.5 depending on the book, with the total ticking up to 47.5.

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Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Alouettes vs Argonauts Week 2 predictions

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Predictions made on 6/14/2022 at 11:58 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Alouettes vs Argonauts game info

Location: BMO Field, Toronto, ON
Date: Thursday, June 16, 2022
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: TSN

Alouettes at Argonauts betting preview

Weather

Key injuries

Alouettes: William Stanback RB (Out), Mario Alford WR/KR (Questionable), Greg Reid (Questionable), Najee Murray (Questionable).
Argonauts: Eric Rogers WR (Questionable), Juwan Brescacin WR (Questionable), DaVaris DanielsWR (Questionable), Earnest Edwards WR (Questionable), Jamal Peters DB (Questionable), Isiah Cage OT (Questionable), Peter Nicastro C (Questionable).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.

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Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in the Argonauts’ last six games as a favorite. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Argonauts.

Alouettes vs Argonauts picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favourite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Alouettes are coming off a 30-27 loss on the road in Calgary in Week 1. Not only did they let a lead slip away, but they lost star running back William Stanback to the six-game IL with an ankle injury. Backup Jeshrun Antwi ripped off a 70-yard run immediately after entering the game, but he’s still a downgrade from Stanback, who led the league in rushing in 2021 and has racked up 2,224 rushing yards on 6.1 yards per carry in 26 games over the last two seasons.

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Without Stanback, the Als will need to lean more heavily on quarterback Vernon Adams Jr., who is capable of making big plays but has struggled with accuracy and poor decision-making at times. Adams completed less than 60% of his passes last season and threw a pair of picks against the Stamps last week.

Those interceptions, along with a blocked field goal attempt, placed Montreal’s defence in some tough spots. The Als secondary actually played fairly well against Calgary but the run defence left much to be desired with the Stamps rushing for 103 yards on 19 carries.

That’s bad news against a Toronto offence that should be very explosive on the ground thanks to the addition of three-time CFL rushing leader Andrew Harris. Harris is 35 years old and won’t have the same dominant line that he did in Winnipeg. However, the fact that he rushed for 623 yards and 5.4 ypc in just seven regular-season games last year before piling up 216 yards in two playoff contests, indicates that he has plenty left in the tank.

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At quarterback, McLeod Bethel-Thompson needs to be more consistent, but was named an East Division All-Star last year and won’t be looking over his shoulder anymore since he’s now the unquestioned starter.

On defense, the Argos have some nice pieces as well. Especially on the defensive line, where Shawn Oakman is one of the best interior pass rushers in the league while former NFL first-round pick Shane Ray and prized free-agent acquisition Ja’Gared Davis bring the heat from the outside.

The Argos finished last season with a 9-5 record and were en route to a Grey Cup appearance before falling apart in the second half of the East Division Final against the Ti-Cats. After adding some of the biggest names in free agency, they’ll be even better this year and should be able to take care of business against an Als side that will miss Stanback.

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Prediction: Argonauts -3 (-106 at BetRegal)

Covers CFL betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

Scoring was down across the league last year, with all games during the regular season going 37-25-1 to the Under. Argos contests were one of the few exceptions to that rule, as Toronto finished the year going 7-3 O/U in its last 10 games.

The Argos offence should be able to put points on the board with Harris making the offence much more dynamic. They also have a deep receiving corps which should be even better after signing 2019 MOP winner Brandon Banks, who is looking for a bounce-back year after being limited last season.

Meanwhile, the Als offence finished atop the CFL with 369.9 yards per game last year despite struggling down the stretch after Adams suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. They also played at a fast pace, leading the league in plays per game.

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Without Stanback, they’ll likely pass the ball even more and Adams and head coach Khari Jones are willing to attack deep. That can lead to some big plays but also can result in turnovers, which results in quick scores for their opponents. That sort of risky play-calling is a double-edged sword that should mean this game goes Over the total.

Prediction: Over 47.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

It’s interesting to note that while the game total for this contest is currently sitting at 47.5 with the spread installing the Als as 3 to 3.5 point pups, you can still get Montreal’s team total at 21.5, five points below Toronto’s team total of 26.5.

Even with Adams throwing two interceptions and that blocked field goal last week, Montreal managed to put up 27 points against a solid Calgary offence in a hostile environment. While the Als are still on the road this week, empty BMO Field is not as daunting of a test for opposing offences and Toronto’s stop-unit still has question marks.

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Sure, on paper the Argos defence should be much improved but I need to see them play before I give them too much credit. After all, this is a unit that surrendered more points than any other playoff team last year, while ranking dead-last in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt (5.7).

The Als have one of the league’s best one-two tandems at receiver in Jake Wieneke and Eugene Lewis Jr. and both burned the Argos secondary last season. With Montreal putting up 32 first downs and 27 points in the first meeting between these teams last year and then scoring 37 points in the second meeting with journeyman Matt Schiltz as their starting QB, I’ll happily bet Montreal’s team total at this number.

Pick: Alouettes team total Over 21.5 (-110 at bet365)

CFL parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s CFL Alouettes vs. Argonauts picks, you could win $60.83 on a $10 bet?

Use our CFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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