2022 NFL Week 11 early predictions, picks: Don’t sleep on Vikings

Another busy week in the NFL brought us some season-defining results. The Bills lost once again in the game of the year; Jeff Saturday won his coaching debut; and the Packers seemingly salvaged their season in an overtime win over the Cowboys.

Will we see such critical outcomes in Week 11 with oddsmakers expecting a bevy of closely contested matchups? Here’s a look at the odds this week at BetMGM and the games we’re targeting early on:

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NFL Week 11 betting odds, point spreads (via BetMGM)

Saints -3 vs. Rams

The Rams are one of seven teams catching between 2.5 and 3.5 points as of Monday evening, but they feel like one of the toughest teams to back in that range given the injuries they’re facing to key players.

Los Angeles’ offense was already stuck in a rut – scoring two or fewer touchdowns in five of its last six games – before Cooper Kupp suffered an ankle injury in Sunday’s 27-17 loss to the Cardinals. It looks like he may have avoided a serious long-term injury, but it’d be shocking to see him take the field in Week 11, which would be a devastating blow to a team still hoping for the return of starting quarterback Matthew Stafford (concussion).

If and when either are officially ruled out, don’t be surprised to see this line tilt more in favor of the Saints, who could also turn to Jameis Winston on Sunday after injuries sent him to the bench earlier this year. Those factors alone make this line worth betting early in the week at what’s already a fair price for the home favorites.

Raiders-Broncos under 41.5

Betting the total has felt like a cheat code all year long when the Broncos are involved, as they’ve helped the under cash in eight of their nine games this season. And it doesn’t feel like this total will stay this high all week long.

Entering Week 11, Denver has scored the fewest points on offense (14.6 PPG) and allowed the fewest points on defense (16.6 PPG), the ultimate recipe for a cash cow where the total is concerned. Seven of the Broncos’ nine games have gone under by at least 10 points, and only one of them surpassed 38 combined points.

Rather, Denver’s nine games have averaged out to 31.1 combined points scored, which is more than 10 points lower than the number currently dealing at BetMGM. This total won’t get that low, nor should it, but don’t be surprised if this one flirts with a sub-40 total by kickoff.

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Vikings +1 vs. Cowboys

Are we sure the right team is favored here? It’s somewhat shocking to see the Vikings dealing as home underdogs one week after beating the longtime Super Bowl favorites, sending this team to a stellar 8-1 record through its first nine games.

Yes, there are flaws with Minnesota’s profile, but this is still one of the most complete teams in the league with a knack for pulling out close games in the fourth quarter. The former is also true of the Cowboys, but Mike McCarthy’s group managed to pull defeat from the jaws of victory with last week’s overtime loss at Lambeau Field.

Maybe wiseguys get ahold of this one and keep the road side favored all week long. Still, this line goes against what you’d expect public perception to be for these two sides based on last week’s results – and the Vikings are the better bet, anyway. If you feel the same, act quickly.